It turns out that the baseball (regular) season ended yesterday, although for Cubs fans it was over 4 months ago. And the official offseason started with a couple big bangs, with the Cubs annoucning first that Andy McPhail was resigning as the Cubs’ president, and then today, making it official that Dusty Baker would not be returning. A few short years ago the whole town was saying “In Dusty we Trusty.” Suffice to say, that sentiment changed. Chicagoist sums it up as “In Dusty we Busty.”
I would still argue that the Cubs’ woes are not the fault of Dusty. Or, perhaps more accurately, I don’t think he deserves as much blame as he’s getting. But baseball people work, well, like baseball people. And baseball people have to fire somebody, and that somebody is the manager. And maybe a fresh face will do the clubhouse some good. I doubt the results will be worse, just like I have no doubt that Dusty will manage again, and be successful doing so.
In any case, for the first time since way back in ‘04, the baseball postseason lacks a Chicago team. Perhaps more noticeably, the postseason also is missing a team from Atlanta or a team from Boston. In fact, both of those teams finished third in their divisions. But still, there aren’t too many surprises among the teams remaining, even though neither team from last year’s World Series even made the playoffs.
The biggest surprise in baseball this year is definitely the Detroit Tigers. Although they were expected to improve over last year’s team, nobody had them beating the White Sox, Indians or Twins. And until the last day of the season, they nearly beat all of those teams. Most people didn’t have the Twins winning the division, preferring the Sox or Indians, but seeing the Twins in the playoffs isn’t shocking, either.
It’s probably more surprising to people that two AL Central teams are in the playoffs, a nice change of pace from the seemingly annual NY/Boston duo. Seeing the Yankees come out of the East is not news. Seeing Oakland out of the West isn’t a big surprise, although the Angels were expected to have put up more of a fight than they did.
On the NL side pretty much everybody expected the Mets to win the East, which they did rather easily. The Cardinals aren’t surprising anybody with their Central win, but they haven’t looked that good, which is more surprising. It seems that the NL Central, baseball’s biggest division, had enough talent that they beat up on each other, and since each team had weaknesses, nobody emerged a 90 game winner.
It was a horserace out west, with the Padres earning the division win by a tie-break over the Dodgers. Most people probably didn’t expect the wild card to come from the west, but I’m personally glad Houston’s not in, so I’m not complaining.
In the AL I think the A’s and Yankees will be facing off in a tough ALCS. I don’t see Detroit hanging on against the mighty Yankee lineup, even though the Yankee pitchers are beatable. Similarly, I don’t see the Twins hanging on against the A’s. Sure, the Twinkies may send Johan Santana to the mound twice in five games, and they may win both those games, but they’re not winning the other three. The A’s pitching is solid and they can score runs. This will be Oakland’s first trip past the division series after numerous efforts earlier this decade.
Once the A’s and Yanks square off, it will be hard to say. The A’s may have more holes, so if the Yankees pitchers show up and pitch the way their paid, it’s safe to say we’ll have our first Yankees World Series since 2003. But the starters are inconsistent and Mariano “Sure Thing” Rivera isn’t a certainty like he used to be, and the Yankees won’t beat up on the Oakland pitching very easily. So if the A’s score some runs, it will be a tight series. Look for this one to go 6 or 7 games. I’ll pick Oakland over the Yankees, just because maybe if I try hard enough I can will it to happen.
Back to the NL. In the St. Louis vs. San Diego series the advantage seems to lie squarely with the Padres. St. Louis’ pitching is extremely vulnerable, and San Diego’s potent pitching will take care of the not-as-dangerous-as-previous-years-but-still-talented Cardinal batting order. I mean, getting Pujols out isn’t a gimmee. But if nobody is on base, a solo shot isn’t such a bad thing. Plus, comparing closers, the Cardinals’ Isringhausen has 33 saves in 43 chances and an ERA north of 3.50. The Padres’ Trevor Hoffman set the career saves record, notching 46 saves in 51 opportunities, with an ERA around 2.15. Playing meaningful games to the end, St. Louis finished 3-7 while San Diego went 8-2. So bottom line? Even if the Cardinals manage a win or two, it will be an early exit for them this year.
The most exciting matchup of all, at least to me, will be Thursday night in prime time. Maddux vs. Glavine. Two of my baseball heroes (especially Maddux), facing off against each other (say wha?!?), sporting the wrong teams’ jerseys (especially Maddux!). That should be a great game. I hope Maddux wins 1-0. The series as a whole should favor the Mets. They’ve been able to rest up as the season wound down, and they’ve got probably the best lineup in the NL. But Pedro won’t be pitching and the Dodgers have played tough down the stretch (9-1 in the last 10), so it’s tough to count them out. I say this series goes 5, unless the Dogers can split in NY and finish ‘em off in L.A. But Beltran, Delgado and company will do their best to head to the NLCS. I’m pulling for the Dodgers (really just Maddux) so I’ll pick ‘em to win, but I’m not holding my breath.
So if I’m right and we have a San Diego – L.A. NLCS there will be about 12 people outside of California watching. But that’s ok, because it would be a heck of a good matchup. I’ll say the Dodgers pull it off in 6 and get to the World Series. But I’ll also hedge that big time and say that the NL playoff situation is about as up in the air as it gets, and nothing would surprise me. Any team could end up representing the NL.
Regardless of who makes it to the World Series the AL has the distinct advantage. It pains me so much to say that. In my scenario, we have Oakland – L.A., and the key will be to take advantage of the games with no DH, when the Big Hurt either sits or plays first base for Oakland. If L.A. can split in Oakland, they should be able to go home and win 2 of 3 – or maybe even put Oakland away. But more than likely it will go 6 or 7. And if the Oakland pitching holds up, they’ll shut the door on the Dodgers, win two at home to start, win one or two more in L.A. and clean up in game 6. On the bright side, I wouldn’t mind seeing the Big Hurt play in and win a World Series. Take that White Sox. So I’ll say Dodgers in 7, with an out-clause for Oakland in 6.
Of course, I’m out on a limb with these predictions. But I will add this. If San Diego makes the World Series, I’ll be curious to see how much Fox hypes up the whole “Trevor Hoffman blew the save in the All-Star game, giving home field advantage to the AL in the World Series” storyline. For that matter, if L.A. is in the Series, they may hype the same storyline!
Ugh.
So I’ll be crazy and say it. Dodgers win the World Series in 7 games. And how cool would it be for Maddux to get that game 7 win?
Cool enough that I’ll stay tuned to see what happens. Because no matter who’s in it, October baseball is still what we spend the whole summer waiting to see.
